Posts Tagged: numbers

Oct 11

Drop in confidence

I’ve been paying a lot of attention lately to how statistics are released to the public. In particular, when are confidence intervals used, and when are they dropped? When are numbers presented as fact, and when are they acknowledged to be fuzzy?

The only time you consistently see confidence intervals reported, in the general press, is for poll results. As in: 66% of respondents believed this poll to be self-reflexive, with a margin of error of plus or minus 5%.

Weather reports often have percentages involved, but it would be a stretch to call these confidence intervals. For example, when the attractive meteorologist on Channel 7 tells you that there is an 80% chance of rain tomorrow, they are presenting that as a fact. Behind that number is a computer simulation that may or may not be able to estimate a confidence interval around that 80% number.

Government statistics and estimates, no matter how bad or biased, almost never come with confidence intervals attached. Gross Domestic Product of the U.S. in 2010? Estimated at $14.64 trillion. Confidence interval for that estimate? Probably so bad you don’t even want to know. Or maybe you do?

Are there times when you’ve been surprised to see a confidence interval reported or missing?